Quantifying the Uncertainty in Exposure, Dose, and Risk

Hoffman, F.O., Kocher, D.C., Apostoaei, A.I. 2011. Beyond dose assessment:  Using risk with full disclosure of uncertainty in public and scientific communication. Health Physics 101(5):591– 600. (abstract available)

Kocher D.C. and F.O. Hoffman. 2011. Drinking water standard for tritium – what’s the risk? Health Physics 101(3):274-285. (abstract available)

Apostoaei, A.I., Miller, L.F. 2004. Uncertainties in the dose coefficients from ingestion of 131I, 137Cs, and 90Sr. Health Physics 86(5): 460-482. 2004. (
abstract available)

Hoffman, F.O., Apostoaei, A.I., Thomas, B. Land, C. Gilbert, E. 2002. The role of uncertainty analysis in estimating the probability of causation of radiogenic cancer. Health Physics, 82(6): S188.

Kocher, D.C., and Eckerman, K.F. 2002. “Comments on ‘Risks of Fatal Cancer from Inhalation of 239,240Plutonium by Humans: A Combined Four-Method Approach with Uncertainty Evaluation’,” Health Phys. 82(6): 902.

Hoffman, F.O., and Kaplan, S. 1999. Beyond the Domain of Direct Observation: How to Specify a Probability Distribution that Represents the "State of Knowledge" About Uncertain Inputs. Risk Analysis, 19:131-134.

Hoffman, F.O., Chambers, D.B., and Stager, R.H. 1999. Uncertainty Is Part of Making Decisions. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 255-261.

Ron, E., and Hoffman, F.O., (eds.). 1999. Uncertainties in Radiation Dosimetry and Their Impact on Dose-Response Analysis. Proceedings of a Workshop at the National Cancer Institute, September 3-5, 1997. NIH Publication No. 99-4541. National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD.

Apostoaei, A.I., Lewis, C.J., Hammonds, J.H., and Hoffman, F.O. 1998. Uncertainties in Doses from Ingestion of 137Cs, 90Sr, 60Co, 106Ru, and 131I. Health Physics Society 43rd Annual Meeting, July 12-16, 1998. Minneapolis, MN. Health Physics Journal, 74(6):S14.


Metzger, J.N., Fjeld, R.A., Hammonds, J.S., and Hoffman, F.O. 1998. Evaluation of software for propagating uncertainty through risk assessment models. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 4(2):263-290.

Leggett, R., Bouville, A., and Hoffman, F.O. 1997. Reliability of ICRP dose coefficients. Radiation Protection 17(1):34-38.

Garger, E.K., Hoffman, F.O., and Thiessen, K.M. 1997. Uncertainty of the long-term resuspension factor. Atmospheric Environment 31(11):1647-1656.

Hoffman, F.O., Simon, S.L., and Thiessen, K.M. 1996. The Role of Uncertainty Analysis in Dose Reconstruction and Risk Assessment. 31st Annual Meeting of the NCRP. 107-134.

NCRP (National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements). 1996. A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination. Chairman of Scientific Committee 64-17. NCRP Commentary No. 14. NCRP, Bethesda, MD.

Hammonds, J.S., Hoffman, F.O., and Bartell, S.M. 1994. An introductory guide to uncertainty analysis in environmental and health risk assessment. Environmental Restoration Program, Oak Ridge National Laboratory. ES/ER/TM-35/RI.

Hoffman, F.O., and Hammonds, J.S. 1994. Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish between Uncertainty due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty due to Variability. Risk Analysis 14(5):707-712.

Shevenell, L., and Hoffman, F.O. 1993. Necessity of uncertainty analysis in risk assessment. Journal of Hazardous Materials 35:369-385.

Hoffman, F.O., and Hammonds, J.S. 1992. An introductory guide to uncertainty analysis in environmental and health risk assessment. Environmental Restoration Program, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Report. ES/ER/TM-35.

Hoffman, F.O., and Hofer, E. (editors and principal authors). 1989. Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models. Safety Practice Publications of the International Atomic Energy Agency. IAEA Safety Series No. 100:1-106. STI/PUB/835.

Kocher, D.C., Ward, R.C., Killough, G.G., Dunning, D.E., Jr., Hicks, B.B., Hosker, R.P., Jr., Ku, J.Y., and Rao, K.S. 1988. “Sensitivity and Uncertainty Studies of the CRAC2 Computer Code.” Risk Anal. 7, 497 (1987); erratum, Risk Anal. 8, 308.

Hoffman, F.O., Miller, C.W., and Ng, Y.C. 1984. Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications. In: Environmental Transfer to Man of Radionuclide Releases from Nuclear Installations, Commission of the European Communities, Luxembourg.

Hoffman, F.O., Witherspoon, J.P., and Waite, D.A. 1984. Uncertainties in assessment models In: Radiological Assessment: Predicting the Transport, Bioaccumulation, and Intake by Man of Radionuclides Released to the Environment. Report of NCRP Scientific Committee-64.. Bethesda, Maryland.

Hoffman, F.O., and Miller, C.W. 1983. Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications. In: Environmental Radioactivity, The Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Meeting of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, April 6, 1983. Washington, D.C. 110-138.

Hoffman, F.O., and Gardner, R.H. 1983. Evaluation of uncertainties in radiological assessment models. In: Radiological Assessments (J.E. Till and H.R. Meyer, eds.). Washington, D.C., U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NUREG/CR-3332, ORNL-5968.